Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.221023 0.266496 0.321294 0.392925 0.485166 0.601446 0.761528
2025-05-25 0.149680 0.196242 0.258634 0.350387 0.485457 0.683000 1.005717
2025-06-01 0.113727 0.160030 0.228013 0.339135 0.524605 0.838734 1.453140
2025-06-08 0.089382 0.133729 0.204318 0.331439 0.570669 1.040251 2.154653
2025-06-15 0.072758 0.115057 0.187574 0.330764 0.634221 1.328795 3.375501
2025-06-22 0.060194 0.100011 0.173022 0.330163 0.704006 1.705792 5.460322
2025-06-29 0.048712 0.084199 0.152920 0.311859 0.729786 2.022580 8.169051
2025-07-06 0.036036 0.063563 0.118398 0.250126 0.615795 1.842040 8.567431
2025-07-13 0.030922 0.056452 0.109831 0.246833 0.665875 2.298714 14.216360
2025-07-20 0.027549 0.052109 0.106119 0.254904 0.761507 3.113814 28.043540
2025-07-27 0.025014 0.048987 0.104415 0.268499 0.894166 4.431654 65.189306
2025-08-03 0.022711 0.045897 0.102025 0.279788 1.036669 6.290582 170.557646
2025-08-10 0.019723 0.040879 0.094036 0.272095 1.105562 8.088162 434.405351
2025-08-17 0.017064 0.036132 0.085591 0.259537 1.145868 10.027092 1207.514356
2025-08-24 0.015388 0.033446 0.082162 0.264316 1.300657 14.627101 8252.564069
2025-08-31 0.013952 0.031082 0.079050 0.269405 1.479688 21.942055 242107.843520
2025-09-07 0.012795 0.029210 0.076933 0.278235 1.718942 35.285182 NaN
2025-09-14 0.011752 0.027442 0.074678 0.285818 1.984401 58.267185 NaN
2025-09-21 0.010541 0.024995 0.069558 0.276943 2.091590 81.580723 NaN
2025-09-28 0.008789 0.020782 0.057596 0.227645 1.692393 62.477892 NaN
2025-10-05 0.008097 0.019466 0.055285 0.228266 1.866843 97.521421 NaN
2025-10-12 0.007633 0.018720 0.054774 0.238726 2.206715 190.594726 NaN
2025-10-19 0.007270 0.018208 0.054985 0.254079 2.696413 453.498425 NaN